Opinião Pública – Vol. 28, Nº 3 2022
Articles in this issue
Authors: Mario Fuks e Pedro Henrique Marques
This article analyzes whether affective polarization and (or) ideological polarization is ongoing in Brazil, what are its characteristics and whether it is concentrated in certain groups in Brazilian society. The research uses data from Eseb (2002 – 2018) and Lapop (2010 – 2019). The results indicate that: 1) there is an increase in polarization, but it is predominantly affective and more intense in relation to the candidates; 2) although there are already some signs in 2014, affective polarization is much more visible in 2018; 3) in ideology, evidence indicates a growth and radicalization of the right, which may eventually contribute to a polarization. Given this evidence, it is concluded that the specific characteristics of Brazilian polarization are related to aspects of our political context, both long-term, such as the reduced social base of the parties, and more recent ones, such as the reorganization of the right and moderation of PT. In common with other countries, there is, in Brazil, the concentration of polarization in politically engaged individuals.
Authors: Guilherme Azzi Russo, Jairo Pimentel Junior e George Avelino
The prevailing view of the 2018 election is that the Brazilian electorate shifted to the right. In this article, we argue that one of the reasons explaining this increase in voters’ ideological self-positioning as right-wing can be attributed to the decision-making process of the vote itself, and not necessarily to an increase in the conservative electoral base. To test this hypothesis, we carried out two survey experiments that indicate that simple information about the position of President Bolsonaro had the following effects on respondents’ attitudes: 1) an increase in the percentage of those who declared a political position (right-wing or leftist); 2) a self-placement or identification, either swinging to the left or to the right, conditional on the voter’s predisposition to support or oppose Bolsonaro. The existence of a reverse causality effect indicates an alternative and complementary interpretation of the relationship between ideology and the electoral process, thus having important implications for understanding the current context of Brazilian elections.
Authors: Pedro Santos Mundim, Wladimir Gramacho, Mathieu Turgeon e Max Stabile
The article investigates the occurrence of selective exposure in Brazil, in view of the frequency with which Brazilians said they sought information about the COVID-19 pandemic in the Jornal Nacional and Jornal da Record. It uses data from a content analysis of the coverage of these vehicles in 2020 and data from a national public opinion survey. The analyses showed that partisanship and religion were important predictors of the consumption of news of these vehicles. Evangelicals and supporters of the “Bolsonaro party” were the most assiduous viewers of Jornal da Record. Catholics, supporters of other subtitles and non-partisans consumed more the Jornal National. These results show that Brazilians consume news in line with their political convictions and that some groups may be receiving less information about COVID-19.
Authors: Cristiano Rodrigues e Matheus Mazzilli Pereira
The institutional proximity between Black and LGBT+ movements and the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) began in the same period. However, it generated distinct political effects during the party's administration in the federal government. This article evaluates whether and how these differences can be explained by the relationship between these movements and the PT and the relationship between social movements and opposition groups. To this end, the article analyzes two sets of empirical evidence: 1) data obtained through documental and bibliographical research on the relationship between those parties and the PT; 2) data on the federal budget for racial equality and LGBT+ rights policies; 3) and data on the legislative production in favor and against these themes between the 52nd and 54th legislatures. The results indicate that the relationships between social movements, parties, and legislative opposition explain, at least partly, the differences in the movements' political effects. Such findings introduce new explanatory elements that enrich traditional theoretical models on the relationships between social movements, governments, and bureaucracy.
Authors: Camila Penna, Priscila Delgado de Carvalho e Priscila Zanandrez
Among the literature on political culture and participatory experiences, participation has commonly been related to democratic values and the deepening of democracy. However, there is still an explanatory gap regarding how activists from different sectors of civil society think about and conceive democracy. Anchored in the question, “How do people with different trajectories of activism understand democracy?”, this article aims to provide a theoretical and empirical explanation of how citizens with different participatory experiences understand democracy and, alternatively, how they conceive non-democratic regimes. Based on analysis of the conversations produced by focus groups held in Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, and Montes Claros, from March to September 2019, the article will demonstrate how understandings about democracy vary depending on the profile and the links of the participants.
Authors: Lígia Helena Hahn Lüchmann e Rodrigo Sartori Bogo
To analyze the phenomenon of shrinking municipal participatory budgets (PBs) in Brazil and Portugal, the article presents unprecedented data on the occurrence of these participatory processes comparing the years of 2016 and 2019. The results find that, despite a decrease in cases in both countries, Brazil shows a drop of more than 80% in PB cases in this period, while the index in Portugal is of almost 22%. Mobilizing the theoretical field of public policies, the article discusses the importance of political-partisan electoral changes and suggests that the abandonment of PBs not only occurs due to the change of governments, among other elements, but also correlates to the effects of creation and growth of other less demanding formats of participation, such as public hearings in Brazil and sectorial modalities of PBs, in addition to digital modalities in Portugal.
Authors: Natasha Bachini, Keila C. G. Rosa, Andressa Liegi Vieira Costa e Robson Nunes de Farias Silva
In this article, we analyze the official campaigns of the candidates for city halls of all Brazilian state capitals in 2020 on Facebook. Using descriptive statistical techniques and frame analysis, we observe the best performing actors and narratives on the network and their main characteristics, such as positioning on the political spectrum, frames, alignments, and communication resources. Our results show the reaction of leftists on the social network following the 2018 elections, analyzing the posts on the profiles of small parties, which used the platform mainly to discuss the wider political conjuncture and identity issues. However, negative campaign practices and giving priority to themes with subjective appeal, such as family and religion, remained a trend, especially among pages supporting Bolsonaro, the most referenced politician during the election.
Authors: Jesús Carrillo-Rodríguez e Claudia Eugenia Toca-Torres
In Colombia, electoral polls have been losing credibility, so rigorous monitoring and analysis of social networks during an electoral campaign could be a way of predicting election results. Which indicators of public opinion on social networks determine a candidate´s triumph? The research that comprises this article traced on Twitter some key theoretical components of public opinion that could accurately anticipate the winner during the electoral process in Bogotá. Using ATLAS.Ti, our research efforts coded posts on candidates’ pages to generate data for our analysis. It was possible to identify seven (7) public opinion indicators that in an aggregated way coincide with electoral results. Likes on Facebook or Twitter were most effective in anticipating the candidate elect. The originality of this research is based on its methodology for analyzing content posted on Twitter and the innovation of including feelings and moods as important aspects of attitudes, the deepest component of public opinion. Our research results validate public opinion theory and its inner components. Survey agencies must adjust their methods to preserve credibility.
Author: Nayara F. Macedo de Medeiros Albrecht
This paper analyses the development of the discretionary system of bureaucratic positions in Brazil. On the one hand, the research literature relates the allocation of public offices to the coalitional presidential system. On the other hand, this literature pointed out initiatives aiming to professionalise the bureaucracy and strengthen state careers. In this context, the presidential dilemmas refer to choosing between seeking support from the coalition by appointing party members and controlling public policies by nominating individuals aligned with the president’s preferences. In this article, theories of institutional change are the main theoretical framework for analysing the progression of rules on appointments to public offices and their impacts on the portraits of nominees. Through a case study of Brazil, the paper assesses the congruence between theoretical predictions and empirical evidence regarding the relationship between institutions and the distribution of public sector posts. The methodology comprises bibliographic research, documental analysis, and descriptive statistics. The documentary search concentrated on the rules regarding the presidential coordination bodies and compulsory percentages of appointed career civil servants. The results demonstrated that the laws were not effective as federal public bodies did not comply with the rules. Furthermore, the quantity of career civil servants in discretionary public offices was already high before the establishment of compulsory percentages. The role of coordination bodies varied across the different administrations. Despite the centralisation of presidential power, evidence points out that public managers are partially free to choose their staff and only sometimes comply with the legal requirements. Thus, the conclusions reinforce the need to include informal institutions in further analysis. Besides promoting a contextual description of Brazil, the paper contributes to theory-testing and theory-building on the relationship between institutions and the distribution of public offices.
Authors: Fellipe Herman, Francisco Paulo Jamil Marques e Edna Miola
This article investigates the factors associated with the quality of transparency of the websites of Brazilian local governments. We also question the extent to which external control institutions have pressured municipal governments to improve their online transparency. Through multiple regression models, we discuss whether and how socio-demographic, political, and economic variables are relevant to explain the differences in e-transparency in 5,563 cities. The results show that, despite an institutionalization process of public transparency led by federal regulatory evolution, experiences at the local level remain heterogeneous. Population size, GDP per capita, education levels, and voter turnout are statistically important to explain the quality of e-transparency experiences. The main conclusion is that external regulators play a crucial role in shaping digital transparency due to the possibility of imposing legal penalties. Effective use of digital media to foster democratic practices involves pressure from external monitoring agencies willing to challenge a bureaucratic culture resistant to openness.