Opinião Pública – Vol. 26, Nº 3 2020
Articles in this issue
Authors: Mario Fuks e Pedro Henrique Marques
This article aims to assess the effect of ideology on Bolsonaro’s vote in the 2018 presidential elections. Our argument is that, after a long period of discreet action on Brazilians’ political behavior, ideology is again relevant. To explain this change, we adopted a contextualist perspective, according to which the reorganization of the right in the parliament, in the streets and in the media and the offer of an extreme right candidacy in the electoral competition created favorable conditions for the alignment, in the electorate, between ideology and electoral choice in 2018. The analysis reveal that Brazilians are more ideologically oriented and the tests confirm the impact of ideology on presidential choice.
Author: João Victor Guedes-Neto
Does social sorting theory explain the political behavior of Brazilian voters in the 2018 presidential election? The Americanist literature demonstrates that the alignment of social identities generates and reinforces partisanship as a social identity especially among right-wingers. Given the salience of religious faith, race, and gender in the 2018 elections, it is worth understanding whether the same phenomenon occurs in Brazil. This question is answered based on econometric tests relying on data from a nationally representative survey conducted with 1,498 voters in the first semester of 2019. Multinomial logistic and logistic regressions demonstrate that protestants, white, and males have a substantively higher preference for PSL in comparison to other parties, both when it comes to voting and partisanship.
Authors: Carolina Segovia e Ricardo Gamboa
How do citizens decide who to vote for in an election? Traditional answers focus on the role of political knowledge, party identification, and evaluations of the past performance of governments as explanatory variables. In this study we evaluate an alternative argument: the role of emotions. Using data from a survey carried out following the Chilean general elections of December 2017, this article investigates the association of emotions with the vote for Sebastián Piñera, and how emotions interact with other relevant factors that correlate with the vote. We conclude that in Chile, together with party identification and the evaluation of past governments, the emotions aroused by candidates are strongly associated with the voting decision.
Authors: Carlos Fernando Osorio Andrade, Edwin Arango Espinal e Hector Augusto Rodriguez Orejuela
The research presented in this article analyzes the strategies of the political announcements published on Twitter by the candidates for the second round of presidential election in Colombia, in the year 2018. The purpose and focus of the message of 425 posts was identified and a negative binomial regression model was applied to establish the effects of these elements on the participation of users on Twitter measured by likes, comments and retweets. There were two relevant findings: a) aggressive political advertising – when candidates attack, or defend against an opponent – increases the participation of users on Twitter; b) Messages with personal themes of the candidate have greater social support than publications that address political proposals.
Authors: Emerson Urizzi Cervi, Sonia Terron e Gláucio Ary Dillon Soares
If we consider only the recent affiliated to political parties in Brazil, they are three times the votes received by Jânio Quadros in the 1960 presidential election. According to the database of the Brazilian electoral justice, about 16.8 million voters were members of political parties at the end of 2018: the equivalent of 11,4% of the electorate. How are these members distributed in Brazil? What variables explain the geographical differences of the affiliation? Our objectives are: 1) verify the growth of party affiliation in Brazilian municipalities in the 2014, 2016, 2018 election years; 2) analyze de variations between them, from a social-spatial perspective. It is an exploratory study. We use spatial-statistical and cartographic methods to analyze the party affiliation database. We found a network of associations with socio-demographic, economic and electoral indicators. We wanted to know what changed, when it changed, where it changed, and what changed together. We identify patterns of associations that are presented in the article.
Authors: Anderson Henrique e Mariana Batista
What is the relationship between party alignment and the allocation of federal recognition and emergency resources to Brazilian municipalities? We propose that even though disasters are given by nature, politics matter for federal recognition and the amount of transfers received. The argument is that the government will benefit the aligned mayors, recognizing the emergency declarations and allocating more resources to the municipalities of the same party. Considering the Brazilian coalition presidentialism, we tested three hypotheses for political alignment: alignment with the president, with the coalition, and with the minister of the portfolio. We present an original database with emergency declarations by the municipalities and the amounts transferred for that purpose in the period from 2010 to 2015. We used Poisson regression models and a two-part model to test our hypotheses. The results indicate that declarations and emergency transfers are allocated in a way that benefits political allies at the subnational level, especially mayors aligned with the minister of the portfolio.
Authors: Fernanda Vick e Adrian Gurza Lavalle
The article presents an in-depth case study of the participatory National Education Conference (CONAE), held in 2010, and its influence over the financing model of the National Education Plan 2014/2024 (Law No. 13,005). CONAE can be considered a case of success in influencing policy because the financing model for the PNE goals and its instrument - initial Student-Quality Cost - gained the status of Law against the preferences of the federal executive power, which support coalition was majority in Congress, substantially expanding the financial responsibilities of the Union and making them enforceable. The aim of this article is to identify and describe the functioning of the causal mechanisms at working in the transformation of CONAE policy recommendations into law. It is shown that it is politics, or rather, causal mechanisms regularly activated by political actors–and not the properties of conferences’ institutional design or participation within them–which explains the incorporation of recommendations into law projects and, eventually, in sanctioned law. Conferences gained centrality in the literature because they were identified as a notable case of participation effectiveness on a macro scale beyond the electoral channels due to their capacity to inform and influence laws. Such connection remained established, but not satisfactorily explained.
Author: Rodolfo de Camargo Lima
The article studies political recruitment effects on attitudes and perceptions of bureaucrats working in Brazilian national ministries, using matching techniques. Part of the literature associates types of recruitment with differences in bureaucratic behavior, suggesting that different modes of personnel selection generate distinctive incentives to perform bureaucratic activities. The theoretical expectations of the political treatment on attitudes and perceptions are partially supported on 12% of the analyzed topics. On the one hand, treatment power has shown a specific effect, mainly of relational nature. On the other hand, the results relativize the bureaucracy-politics cleavage, inferring that there are more nuances in that relationship than assumed by this hypothetical division.
Authors: Manoel Leonardo Santos, Fernanda Cimini e Asbel Bohigues
This article analyzes the perceptions of parliamentarians from 17 countries in Latin America about economic and international relations. The central issue is to identify the determinants of parliamentarians’ preferences. The article seeks to identify which are the determinants that influence the options expressed by parliamentarians, putting in contrast their options for political and economic relations between countries in the region vs. their options for other countries and the main economic powers. The analysis is divided into two parts. The first one is comparative, with descriptive statistics and network analysis. After this analysis, legislatures/countries are compared at the aggregate level. The second part goes down to the level of individual parliamentary behavior, seeking to estimate, with the application of linear regression models (OLS), the weight of different predictors for the formation of their preference structures. The article concludes that parliamentarians' preferences are strongly determined by contextual (structural) variables and a high degree of economic pragmatism, but political ideas continue to have some relevance. Although to a lesser extent, the ideology and preferences for state-regulated economies also help to understand why some parliamentarians defend more political and economic regionalism than others.